Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. Trump gave them hope. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. This county voted with the popular vote each time. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. University of New Hampshire . 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. So, where are the bellwether counties? Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. Telegram Telegram Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. 8. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Until this year. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? 4. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. But both are worth watching. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. Seriously. Watauga has gone for. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. Yes, another Hillsborough! Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. Enter Donald Trump. Lets find a coin, and flip it. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. It gets a lot more interesting. Just how big is it? Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). 11. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Website Updates Paused In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. Dont simply gloss over this. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Go on, look them up! After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. 3. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. Hillary Clinton (578) Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). That report was issued on Nov. 12. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Want to dive deeper? It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. 3. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. (subject to censorship). We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? That's 14 in a row. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. All rights reserved. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. All other 21 counties voted Republican. Until this year. Free and open-source. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president.

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